Bhaskar Parichha
With Narendra Modi becoming India’s Prime Minister for the second time in a row and with a whipping majority, a lot of changes are on the cards in the country’s body-politic. From Muslim factor to caste politics, India’s electoral behaviors have vastly changed – or will change – with the May 23rd results, and for good.
As the results show, the Bharatiya Janta Party has got about 38 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This is more than the votes BJP had polled in the 2014 elections. Moreso, the saffron party has won about 300 seats of its own accord. This number too is more than the numbers the party got last time. What this plenteous win signifies is that there will be unremitting and persevering impact on the country’s socio-political dynamics in the time to come. For PM Modi, individually, the 2019 elections are more authoritative than the 2014 one when he entered national politics.
Social Engineering
For the BJP and its alliance partners, things could be even more challenging. BJP’s unassailable win is the victory for Narendra Modi’s ‘Hidutva plus Vikash’ politics. On the one hand, during Modi’s reign, beef was banned and there was huge antagonism towards India’s first Prime Minister Pandit Nehru and the Nehruvian ideology.
While BR Ambedkar and Sardar Patel were repositioned, Nehru’s legacy witnessed a downward spiral. Likewise, by giving due respect and status to regional Heros, the BJP tried to achieve the twin objectives of ‘Hindutwa and social engineering.’ Then there were the roads, toilets and massive construction from this corner to that corner which ultimately paid dividends. No single factor can be attributed to this massive win.It, in effect, was a combination of factors.
Welfarism
If Narendra Modi was once more anointed as PM and people across regions showered blessings on him,it was also due to the numerous welfare schemes that were undertaken during the last five years.A number of schemes were devised for the poorest of the poor and they were hugely disseminated.
For a moment, the poorest sections felt that Modi was their messiah. From cooking gas to power connection, from health insurance to bank accounts, from income support to farmers to all others downward on the social ladder Modi’s government invented schemes with a sort of brazenness. By doing this, Modi created a social class which benefited from his welfarism and voted him massively. This is the class Modi wants to push further up as his victory speech reveals.
National Appeal
In the run-up to the general elections the BJP had put forth Modi as a people’s saver and the only personality around who can safeguard country’s national security. This was done consciously and painstakingly. The Pulwama attack and the counter attack in Balakot served the desire purpose to whip up nationalist sentiment. In fact, the BJP showed the Congress party in poorer light and as one which is weak when it came to national defense and countering terrorism.
What’s more, even on emotive issues Modi tried to alienate the opposition during campaigning. All this demonstrate that in the coming days too Modi’s appeal in national politics will continue to grow.
Decisive Voting
In 2007, when the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh got a huge victory, it was a decisive vote. That was the year when in India’s twenty-first century politics, people had given an opportunity to a government to be equally responsive. Mayawati’s victory was followed by the win of Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajvadi Party. Ditto for Narendra Modi in 2014 when he created history in Uttar Pradesh. This determination of the electorate was seen once again in 2017 when the BJP won UP and formed its government after many years of hiatus. In all these elections, the electorate thought and acted resolutely. The 2019 elections and the results are no different.
Modi has created a social class which benefited from his welfarism and voted him massively. This is the class Modi wants to push further up as his victory speech reveals.
Caste Politics
India’s social structure may still be steeped in caste and its offshoots. But it can’t ‘be denied that casteist considerations and influences have substantially come down in the past few years. The kind of victory the BJP has achieved in 2019 election goes to prove that in both the urban and the rural areas, a new section or class of people has emerged which no longer vote along caste lines but along its aspirations. Add to this their shunning dynastic politics. If people have voted Narendra Modi in droves, the objective behind such strident voting was throwing away relational politics. What matters more to this section today is opportunity, growth and national pride.
Muslim Vote
In India’s electoral kitty, Muslim votes have a predominant presence. The seats that went to the BSP-SP Mahagatbandhan in Uttar Pradesh prove that. Nice that with this, the Lok Sabha will have more Muslim MPs.But the slender number of Muslim votes also confirms that in states like UP,West Bengal,Bihar, Assam ,Kerala and Maharashtra the Muslim factor has simply fizzled out .In a way, the BJP has prevented the Muslim votes to make a dent in elections. What this shows is that the BJP – through its upper caste votes and social engineering – has defeated the Muslims and their power of consolidating votes.
