Globalization, a force to be reckoned with a few years ago and worked like the waves in the sea, is fading away and receding gradually

Suresh Chandra Sarangi

Till the writing of this article, the world has not jumped into a nuclear cauldron. Let us not expect this to happen. However, there is constant fear of a nuclear Armageddon. It may flare up at any time due to policy miscalculation. Therefore, the world is on the edge. Windel Wilke must be turning on his grave, after listening to the latest developments on the global world. The dark clouds of war have darkened the horizon of international politics.

The sound of the war drums is more intense now than earlier. The revenge of geography seems to be terrible. Globalization, a force to be reckoned with a few years ago and worked like the waves in the sea, is fading away and receding gradually. The world is more fragmented than ever before, geopolitically and this fragmentation works as a counter to the progress of humanity.

Democracy on Retreat
Global conflicts in Israel and the Gaza Strip, and the threat of nuclear war, in Ukraine, appear to destabilize the post World War II order. In many nations of the world, autocracy seems to be raising its ugly head and democracy appears to be on the retreat. Rightwing politics seems to have their say and protectionism, rabid nationalism is vitiating the atmosphere day by day. America’s tacit support to Ukraine’s bid to spoil Russian invasion with the support of the Western world appears to be the causal factor of one of the deadliest wars continuing for more than 1000 days. These are not welcome developments, but in the absence of vibrant democracy, understanding, and negotiation, humanity is at a loss. The biggest existential crisis, the debilitating climate change, illiteracy, hunger, and health issues are thrown and war becomes an ultimate reality.

With the devastating war in two geographies and undeniably the most crucial geographies of the world, the international institutions are a mere spectator and their influence seems to be waning. An accelerated arms race, formation of military blocs, and sanctions have been weaponized as it happened in the case of Russia, inflicted by the Western world including canceling/ freezing their financial assets and banning the use of remittance by Russia, added fuel to the fire. Palestine has been the hotbed of politics since the creation of Israel as per the Balfour declaration and the never-ending war continues unabated.

The sudden ambush by Hezbollah, an outfit supported by Iran, supporting the cause of Palestine’s right of self-determination, followed by the destabilization of world trade by the Haitian extremists in blocking the Red Sea route and later Iranian direct intervention in war by missile attacks on Israel infuriated the Israel government, who became offensive in self-defense that is threatening world peace. The severity of war has left countless dead, numb, mute, helpless destitute. The USA, which has been advocating the cause of the Israeli homeland with military support, being supported by the Israeli lobby in America’s Congress, poses a threat to any international settlement.

Global Supremacy
Similarly, Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine with an ulterior motive to annex Ukraine to its territory, under the pretext that it was a part of the erstwhile USSR, is a tough mental game by Vladimir Putin, the head of the Russian state. But as per Putin’s version, the war was imposed on Russia by the NATO bandwagon, an unnecessary war. The efforts of the USA and its allies in building up military strength on the border of Russia, in Eastern Europe with an ulterior motive to support Ukraine against Russia has triggered a war, which was further precipitated by the economic sanctions by the US and NATO members has infuriated the mercurial Putin to intensify the war.

This speaks of the fact that the West’s effort to maintain global supremacy has triggered the reaction and the second Cold War has become more pronounced thereafter. The missiles fired by Ukraine against Russia, being procured from the Western countries, further aggravated the war, which prompted Russia to declare the application of Nukes, one of the most dangerous latest developments.

The effects of war have been pursuance of a policy of protectionism, and the geo-fragmentation of the world is more pronounced than ever before. Multilateralism seems to have been given a goodbye. China, the second-largest economy and economic powerhouse seems to be tacitly supporting Russia. The actual support of the North Korean ruler with arms and military personnel support makes the situation murkier. Of course, the Chinese threat to attack Taiwan is also a destabilizing factor.

Of course, one would see that there is a similarity between the Palestine war and the Ukraine war and the commonality of being fought for the survival of the existing nation-state. The geo-political polarization is a part of international power politics, where each one is fighting to keep its national interest upheld.

The South China Sea and the Indian Ocean are gradually becoming conflict zones. There is a shift in the global balance of power. America seems to be more threatened in the post Cold War period. The emergence of BRICS as a politico-economic force appears to be a new development, which has antagonized the US as the proposed BRICS currency may belittle the American dollar’s hegemony as the reserve currency. The Newly elected 46th American President Donald Trump threatened that any attempt by the BRICS partners, mostly Russia, China, and India would entail an imposition of a 100% tariff, which has been retaliated by China.

The world seems to be in flux. The threat of the nuclear option is the deadliest one. No doubt nuclear threat is a deterrent as any party initiating this also shall suffer and it is an existential crisis that is more profound. The nuclear option cannot be an option in the remotest sense. Restraint, perhaps would be a proper word. The fact is Russia’s threat appears to be in self-defense and a threat to the NATO powers not to further escalate the situation. Both the US and Russia must desist from war to protect the world from a proposed nuclear holocaust. Nuclear war is against mankind and humanity.

Nagasaki and Hiroshima, speak of the profound truth and monstrosity of nuclear war and how the homo sapiens’s existence would be a question. This is to ponder over before exercising the nuclear option. Since war starts in the minds of man, it must be extinguished in man’s mind. The global order is now wrapped in crisis. The horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki should be a reminder to mankind and more particularly our world leaders to take two steps backward before taking one step forward, so far as the nuclear option is concerned. The world is beset with other problems and humanity is fatigued of protracted war, as there seems to be a passive international body and the most dangerous veto system.

A lost decade, so far as growth is concerned, as coined by the World Bank, is facing the downward syndrome because of the uncertainties hovering due to war and nuking threats by conflicting parties. War is born out of man’s mind and it has been a fact that in most of human history war remains a reality, even today. John Hersey’s ‘Hiroshima’, is a stunning book and a grim reminder of America’s nuclear attack against Japan, that ended World War 2, unmasking the sufferings of humanity, with the unfolding of the catastrophe through 6 eyewitnesses, without skin in their bodies, is a terrible story of human suffering in a nuclear war.

Nuclear Option
The nuclear option would be grueling, the Sun would be under the cover of a cloud, and toxic gases would finish half of the homo sapiens, as evidenced by the Ukrainian, Chernobyl nuclear disaster. The saying of the greatest scientist Einstein, that if a fourth world war would be fought, it would be by bows and arrows, is a spear down the chill that speaks of the destruction of the planet Earth in world war, supposed to be culminating into a nuclear World War III. The US, Russia, China, Israel, and Iran, major parties to the conflicts, must rescind their decision to use nukes, a costly proposition at the cost of humanity. It is said that East European countries like Poland and Germany are creating bunkers to escape the nuclear assault, if any, by creating it for their people. The world is on edge, diplomacy appears to be a clear causality, and maneuvering for peace is the only workable solution.

India has a unique role and has already tried and broker peace. The balance of power that was so assiduously built over the years in the post-World War period seems to be crumbling. Let Trump’s book ‘The Art of Deal’ teach him a lesson to go for diplomatic, bilateral or multilateral understanding, to put water into the nuclear war inferno, for permanent peace for mankind and in the greater interest of our future.

‘American Prometheus’, by Kai bard and Martin J Sherwin, a book, on Oppenheimer, a Pulitzer winning book, has been filmized and ran to packed audiences in the theatres of the world is an assertion of the fact that the world does not need the nukes. It tells the world about the devastating power of an atomic bomb. Let the world leaders and the International institutions we created, give peace a chance through dialogue and democracy. Let nuclear threats work as a potent deterrent to welcome peace in place of war.

(The writer is a former General Manager of Bank of India and currently a visiting professor at KIIT School of Management. Views expressed are personal.)

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