China’s rising power and growing ties with Pakistan pose a serious long-term threat to India’s security. To counter this, India must strengthen its defense, economy, and global partnerships
Tejeswar Patnaik
A recent intelligence report from a leading U.S. defense strategist has raised serious concerns about India’s national security. It identifies China as the biggest long-term threat to India, especially in the wake of recent tensions with Pakistan. While Pakistan remains a constant irritant, China’s rising power, global ambitions, and close partnership with Pakistan present a more complex and lasting challenge.
According to the report titled 2025 World Threat Assessment, both China and Pakistan are expanding and modernizing their militaries. China’s aim is not just to strengthen its position in Asia, but to become a global superpower that rivals the United States. In this process, India is viewed as a competitor that must be contained.
Nuclear Arsenal
China’s economic rise has helped it build a strong defense industry and advanced technologies in space, cyber warfare, and artificial intelligence. It is also investing heavily in its air, sea, and land forces. The report warns that China’s nuclear arsenal is expected to grow to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, and it is actively building overseas military bases to expand its global reach.
China’s economy remains nearly five times larger than India’s. This allows China to spend significantly more on its defense and foreign projects. For example, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is building roads, ports, and railways across Asia, Africa, and Europe. While this helps other countries develop infrastructure, it also creates dependence on China, and in some cases, threatens their sovereignty.
India has opposed the BRI, especially because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This not only challenges India’s territorial claims but also increases China’s influence in the region.
China’s growing military and economic ties with Pakistan are another major concern for India. The report highlights that Pakistan continues to acquire weapons and military technology from China, and Turkey. China also provides political support to Pakistan at global forums, on terrorism and Kashmir issues, often opposing India’s efforts such as its bid for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council.
Pakistan considers India as its main rival and plans its national defense strategy accordingly. The recent Indo-Pak conflict once again demonstrated India’s military superiority. India’s air defense systems, including Indigenous missiles, performed effectively during “Operation Sindoor,” proving the country’s growing self-reliance and defense readiness.
Old Dispute
India and China share a long and difficult history, especially over unresolved border disputes. The 1962 war, the Doklam standoff in 2017, and the deadly Galwan Valley clash in 2020 are clear examples of how fragile the relationship remains. China continues to claim the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as part of its territory, further complicating negotiations.
Although the two countries have centuries-old cultural ties, their modern relationship is shaped by suspicion, competition, and conflicting interests. China wants to keep India engaged in local issues so that it cannot focus on becoming a global power.
China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean is a serious worry for India. Chinese naval ships and submarines have been spotted near Indian waters, and China is also building ports and facilities in neighboring countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar. This is seen as part of a long-term plan to surround India and gain control of important sea routes.
At the same time, trade between India and China remains high. India imports a large number of goods from China, including electronics, machinery, and chemicals. This creates a large trade imbalance, and India must reduce its dependence on Chinese products by building local industries and encouraging domestic manufacturing.
India must adopt a multi-pronged approach to deal with these threats. First, it must increase investments in defense infrastructure, especially in border areas and coastal zones. India should also continue to develop technologies indigenously and reduce its reliance on imported weapons.
There has been positive progress in recent years. India’s defense exports have grown from ₹660 crores in 2014 to ₹23,000 crores today, to reach ₹50,000 crores by 2030. A strong, self-reliant defense sector will not only boost national security but also help India become a major global player.
Defense Partnership
India also needs to build stronger partnerships with like-minded nations. Countries like Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines are also concerned about China’s actions in the region. India should deepen its cooperation with them in defense, trade, and technology.
A key platform for this cooperation is the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)alliance—a group that includes India, the United States, Japan, and Australia. The QUAD works on promoting peace, disaster response, climate change, and maritime security. It also serves as a counterbalance to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. It remains to be seen whether the alliance partners will be effective enough to support India to counter China in the future.
India also needs to focus on improving its economy. While China began its economic reforms in 1979, India started much later in 1991. Today, China and even smaller countries like Vietnam rank higher than India in ease of doing business. To attract more foreign investment, India must simplify rules, upgrade infrastructure, and support innovation.
Diplomatic Engagement
However, it’s important to remember that India and China operate under very different systems. India is a vibrant democracy with multiple political voices, while China is controlled by a single-party regime. This makes direct comparisons difficult but highlights the strength of India’s open and democratic society. The way forward for India is to focus on upgrading defense systems and border security, boosting domestic defense production and R&D, reducing imports from China, strengthening regional and global partnerships, and prioritizing new technologies like AI and cybersecurity and continuous diplomatic engagement with China.
