The upcoming week is vital for the southwest monsoon, which is beginning to show signs of recovery after an early onset followed by an extended period of inactivity
OdishaPlus Bureau
The upcoming week is vital for the southwest monsoon, which is beginning to show signs of recovery after an early onset followed by an extended period of inactivity.
The monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, eight days prior to its usual date of June 1, effectively signaling the commencement of the four-month season. It progressed to Mumbai on May 26, which is 16 days ahead of the expected timeline.
However, it has not moved forward since then, with its northern limit — the theoretical boundary indicating the extent of rainfall — remaining unchanged since May 29. This has resulted in an unusual scenario where May has recorded nearly 2.1 times the historical average rainfall, alongside temperatures that are 1.5 degrees Celsius below the average maximum for the month across India.
Due to a relatively cool and wet May failing to create the necessary heat-induced low-pressure zones, which function as a suction mechanism attracting moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, the monsoon has diminished following its initial surge.
Rainfall this month has thus far been 31 percent below the average, with 30 out of the nation’s 36 meteorological subdivisions experiencing deficits exceeding 15 percent.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates the monsoon to progress and reach Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar in the coming days. Its prediction of an ‘above-normal’ monsoon is based on the absence of El Niño this season and the development of neutral or weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions throughout the season.
Both ocean indicators that are known to affect the monsoon are currently favorable, just as the southwesterly wind system responsible for bringing the rains is firmly established. The extent to which the absence of heat lows, caused by unseasonal summer showers in May that have disrupted the typical heating pattern over the Indian landmass, will counterbalance these advantageous oceanic and atmospheric wind conditions remains uncertain.
One can only hope that the monsoon revitalizes soon enough for farmers to plant the kharif crops, whose success is contingent upon both the quantity and the timing and distribution of rainfall throughout the season.
On a positive note, annual consumer food price inflation, which stood at below 1 percent in May, has decreased to a 43-month low, largely due to a bumper rabi (winter-spring) crop. As of June 1, government wheat stocks are at 38 million tonnes, marking a four-year high and exceeding the necessary levels for rice by more than four times.
The United States Department of Agriculture has forecasted unprecedented global harvests of grains and oilseeds for the 2025-26 period. These harvests are expected to help mitigate inflation, particularly if the monsoon does not fully align with the Indian Meteorological Department’s predictions.
A key takeaway for policymakers from recent climate and geopolitical disruptions is the importance of not assuming commodity prices will remain stable. The government led by Narendra Modi should consider maintaining an open policy towards imports.
