The ongoing Ukraine conflict has imposed a significant financial strain on the United States, primarily due to substantial military aid expenditures
Tejeswar Patnaik
With Donald Trump assuming the presidency of the United States, the global political landscape is undergoing significant shifts. One of the most critical areas of focus is the ongoing Russia- Ukraine war, which has continued for over three years. Many in the international community are hopeful that Trump’s foreign policy realignment, particularly towards Europe and NATO, could bring an end to the conflict.
The prolonged Ukraine conflict has placed a heavy financial burden on the United States, particularly in terms of military aid. Trump has set a condition that Ukraine must grant the U.S. access to its natural resources—such as minerals and energy reserves—in exchange for continued military support.
Financial Commitments
Trump has emphasized that the U.S. will no longer bear the primary financial responsibility for NATO’s defense. He has urged other NATO members to increase their defense spending to at least 5% of their budgets, ensuring that Europe takes greater responsibility for its security.
Trump administration’s reluctance to commit to long-term military aid has cast doubt over America’s future role in the war. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has provided $65.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine. By significantly reducing this support, Trump aims to narrow the U.S. fiscal deficit and redirect resources toward domestic economic priorities.
As the war reaches a critical juncture, diplomatic maneuvers have intensified. The most striking development is the high-level U.S.-Russia negotiations held in Saudi Arabia—without the involvement of Ukraine or European nations. This move has been seen as a major shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump, signaling a willingness to negotiate directly with Russia while sidelining Ukraine. Donald Trump discussed with Putin beforehand while keeping Ukraine in the dark and favored an early negotiation to end hostilities. Both leaders may later meet in Saudi Arabia in later months, sparking fear and surprise about the latest diplomatic move of the US on Ukraine and NATO nations.
It is also visible from the fact that the US did not support the recent United Nations General Assembly resolution appealing for lasting peace in Ukraine, and it moved a separate resolution calling for an immediate halt to war on neutral terms and also appealed for intense diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. However, the outcome of discussions in Riyadh will determine Ukraine’s future, with potential scenarios emerging based on military realities, diplomatic negotiations, and international responses.
Conflict Resolution
One likely outcome is that Ukraine may be forced to concede territories currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. In return, Ukraine might receive security assurances, though its request for NATO membership may be ruled out.
If Ukraine refuses a U.S.-Russia-brokered deal, the war may continue indefinitely in a costly deadlock. Without U.S. military aid, Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defenses could weaken, making it increasingly dependent on European support.
With the U.S. distancing itself, European leaders are considering their security commitments to Ukraine. A major diplomatic meeting in Paris is expected to bring together European leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has expressed willingness to send peacekeeping troops, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who is working on a European-led response. However, Europe’s ability to sustain prolonged military and financial aid remains uncertain, as it cannot match Russia’s military prowess alone.
Political Shifts
There is also the possibility that economic strain, political dissent, or leadership changes in Russia could force a reassessment of the war. However, given Putin’s resilience despite sanctions and battlefield setbacks, this scenario remains speculative. Additionally, the U.S. is reportedly negotiating access to Ukraine’s key resources—minerals, oil, gas, and ports—as partial repayment for military aid.
Russia has economic interests in Ukraine, too, which has Lithium deposits in Donbas and grains, and its occupation of the Donetsa, Luhansk, and Kherson regions may enable it to have a monopoly of the world market.
The U.S. has taken steps to reopen diplomatic channels with Moscow, raising concerns that Washington may prioritize its strategic interests over Ukraine’s sovereignty. Reports indicate that Trump has directly pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warning that Ukraine must negotiate or risk losing its statehood. If the U.S. concedes too much to Russia, Ukraine may be forced into an agreement that compromises its independence.
Ukraine’s Future
Ukraine now faces an unpredictable future, with options ranging from territorial concessions to continued resistance with declining Western support. Without U.S. backing, the question remains: How long can Ukraine sustain its war effort against Russia? Meanwhile, China has expressed support for the ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
The exclusion of Ukraine from direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia has placed it in a precarious position with limited options. While European nations may step in, their commitment remains uncertain. As the global balance of power continues to shift, Trump’s new approach to foreign policy has introduced several critical questions: Will Ukraine be forced into a settlement that compromises its sovereignty? Can European nations step up their military and financial support? How will Russia respond to evolving diplomatic pressures? Will Russia accept the deployment of a European-led peacekeeping force along Ukraine’s borders after the war?
For Ukraine, survival hinges on securing the best possible terms in a U.S.-brokered deal with Russia. For Europe, the war served as a wake-up call. NATO members must increase their defense spending, coordinate a unified strategy, and reduce their reliance on American military aid. European nations must recognize that their security is directly tied to Ukraine’s stability and take decisive action.
For the U.S., balancing economic interests with global leadership remains crucial. While reducing financial strain is a priority, abandoning Ukraine altogether could have long-term geopolitical consequences, potentially emboldening Russian expansionism. For Russia, the war’s trajectory will depend on internal political stability and international pressures.
Over the past three years, the war has caused immense destruction and loss of life. However, with the U.S. now engaging in intense diplomatic efforts with Russia, the prospects of a negotiated settlement appear stronger than ever. The next few months will be decisive in shaping Ukraine’s future, NATO’s role, and the broader global order. The choices made today will determine whether this war ends in peace, compromise, or prolonged conflict.
(The writer is a former Dy General Manager of Bank of India. Views expressed are personal.)
