India’s relations with China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh reveal rising tensions as New Delhi balances security, diplomacy, and regional leadership in South Asia
Suresh Chandra Sarangi
The changing geopolitical scenarios have awakened India to remap and relook at the contours of its foreign policy in the new global politico-economic order. The litmus test for India’s foreign policy and security concerns has never been so pressing as it is now. While challenges remain, there are a few opportunities. The thorough grounding principles of India’s foreign policy are based on Nehruvian principles of Panchsheel, pragmatism, and a serious pursuit of national interest. What is observed is quite contrary, as India’s neighbours are jealous of India’s world ranking as the fastest-growing economy, aspiring to be a superpower nation.
In a period of worldwide turbulence, and because of alliances taking birth as quickly as possible, India’s cautious optimism is against geopolitical adventurism; it is a matter of geopolitical expediency. Neighbours are creating new problems by allowing terrorism, communalism, most particularly Pakistan and now a beleaguered Bangladesh, which has suddenly become ambitious, fanned by sentiment and influenced by the power politics of superpowers.
Although India’s global footprint has expanded after it became a fastest growing economy, doubts have continued to persist about its ability to be the regional leader in South Asia. The geopolitical and economic dynamics of South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region call for careful scrutiny.
The territorial disputes of Aksai Chin and Kashmir throw light on a disturbed bilateral relationship. These intricate regional tensions, arising out of territorial disputes, work like an iron piece in the soul of an otherwise growing nation, choosing its course in the comity of nations. Pakistan, a failed country, and China, a superpower, are sometimes engaged in protracted fights. Though in the case of China, it is sporadic, in the case of Pakistan, it is inciting violence and terror continuously, the latest being the killing of innocent people at Pahalgam, in the Kashmir valley and the New Delhi bomb blast.
The transitions in South Asia in terms of the political-military nexus definitely affect the important stakeholders, that is, India and Pakistan. Terror is raising its ugly head and refuses to die down. The inhuman terror tactics raise sharp focus on issues of bilateral relations. Because of ideological differences, this results in an uneasy truce, which may unfold and flare up into a major Armageddon.
India is still reeling under the blow of the 1962 India-China war, a Chinese betrayal and stabbing from back. Nehru’s Panchsheel failed because of this nightmarish experience. India’s confidence was shaken. The trust and mutual understanding were gone. Border skirmishes continue. China builds infrastructure just near the Indian border. There are encroachments into Indian territory.
India’s China since 1962 remains weird. China has occupied Tibet and its religious and spiritual guru, the Dalai Lama, has been provided political asylum in India, much to the dissatisfaction of China. Both India and China are emerging economies; China is the second largest. And India is 4th largest. But China’s growth has stumbled. India’s economic growth is northbound. And this is what irks China. China tries to checkmate India’s progress through Pakistan.
China was opening up in the Indian Ocean, and India was a member of QUAD to reduce Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. The fact that both were members of BRICS had some sobering effect. But the border skirmishes are a constant irritant, and despite thorns in the relationship, they are trying to pull on well due to trade considerations. This may be the thaw in the otherwise strained relations to scuttle the influence of the dollar in international finance and American hegemony.
The latest diplomatic alignment between China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is another developing axis that may play the spoilsport in the Sino-Indian relationship. China’s adventure to develop the port, and assisting Pakistan under BRI, is a dramatic development that puts the relationship into further strain with wider ramifications. The Sino-Indian contest action has plummeted to new depths across the line of control.
The animosity triggered by Pakistan, a nation born out of India, is significantly out of frustration and continuous war-mongering. Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a constant irritant. Pakistan’s state sponsorship of terror in India is a blatant exhibition of narrow and selfish geopolitics. Though Pakistan has lost each war and its reign of terror has been thwarted a number of times, yet they harbour anti-India policy. After the killing of innocent tourists in Pahalgam, the Operation Sindoor programme decimated Pakistan.
Mercurial Trump wanted to steal the show, and his intervention could stop the war. The Kashmir dispute and cross-border terrorism are perennial. The water sharing issue is an irritant after Operation Sindoor, with India blocking water flow due to unprovoked terrorism in the Kashmir valley. Drone incursion and militant and terrorist incursion have been a regular phenomenon. China’s border belt and road initiative, BRI, and Pakistan’s Gwadar port are recent developments of both China and Pakistan to upset India’s positive economic journey. Though the Kashmir issue has been internationalised, the world body, the UN, has failed so far to strike a deal and ensure a mutual conflict resolution drive.
Bangladesh, which was included in the political map of the world because of the 1971 war and Mrs Gandhi’s bold strategic overtures, had cordial relations with India. Under Mohammad Yunus and after Generation Z waged a war, the bitterness in India-Bangladesh relations is further strained, resulting in cooperation to confrontation. After India gave political asylum to fugitive ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina, the systemic extermination of Hindus in Bangladesh is the latest bone of contention.
Trade relation is scrapped, economic cooperation is thrown into winds. Extremism has no place in democracy, and the once excellent relationship with goodwill and bilateral understanding is put to the fire. India’s Nepal relation was very warm. But under the influence of Chinese red, Nepal-India relation, though not stormy, yet border issues like Kalapani, Susta and Lipulekh are trouble spots.
The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship is now perceived as unequal by Nepal. India is very calculative in its relations with Sri Lanka. As India stood to support them during their worst economic crisis, the relationship is blossoming. Afghanistan’s ties with India are running beautifully with bilateral understanding and in trade and economic cooperation. Afghanistan’s mini-war with Pakistan keeps Pakistan engaged in the northwestern front. India’s massive aid and help during the earthquake and India’s support to rebuild the war-ravaged Afghanistan economy and infrastructure are opening up a new horizon to build and enhance a strong bilateral relationship and mutual understanding, based on shared interests.
India’s current neighbourhood policy is cordial, but it remains strained due to historical baggage. Territorial disputes and rising radical nationalism are tilting the balance of power. In matters of Indian foreign policy, the Prime Minister is walking a tightrope. Trust deficit is maximum with China, Pakistan and now Bangladesh. But India’s sovereignty is crucial for its world leadership. The Cold War has been resumed with redoubled intensity, and nuclear deterrence is somehow stopping aggression.
The revenge of geography seems to be sitting upon a mountain of gunpowder, hate and slander. India’s policymakers are treading cautiously. A slight mistake may bring disaster, and unexpected fallout thereof may derail our growth. Prime Minister Modi and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s policy of “strategic autonomy” puts India in the position of neutrality. It is difficult, though not impossible, to initiate constructive diplomatic negotiations to turn the tables through dialogue and diplomacy, thereby softening the hard feelings and animosity.
PM Modi, while calling the neighbourhood SAARC leaders to his inauguration in 2014, with a policy of “neighbourhood first”, it has not cut much ice. India seems to be losing its domestic clout in South Asia. As the two superpowers, India and China, brace for a protracted stand-off, the romanticism around the Sino-Indian relationship is short-lived. India’s criticism of the Chinese BRI has been accepted by the world now, as they understood the grand design behind it. Pakistan-India relationship has crossed the boiling point many times, and it cannot be trusted anymore, so long as it plays to the tune of the USA and China. The relation with Bangladesh may be mended after the outcome of the election there. All said and done, the geopolitical interests of nations, it appears, shall never meet.
(The writer is a former General Manager of Bank of India. Views expressed are personal.)