An in-depth analysis of ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, their global economic, political, and humanitarian impacts, and the urgent need for peace
Suresh Chandra Sarangi
The irrefutable Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of Great Britain, during the World War years, and Nobel laureate for literature, for his magnum opus “Gathering Storms”, said,” The story of the human race is war. Except for brief and precarious interludes, there has never been peace in the world; and before history began, murderous strife was universal and unending” It continues and echoes in the 1 st quarter of 21st century, manifesting in greater intensity, either in Israel or Iran, in Russia versus Ukraine.
A slight mistake may lead to an explosive nuclear conflagration. When the entire world is still reeling from the blows of the COVID Pandemic, the innocent self-confidence and the belief in the progress of humanity are butchered mercilessly, due to two ongoing wars.
The world is, at this point, disturbed, as peace is a casualty. The world economic crisis, widely predicted as a sequel to war and Trump’s megalomaniacal theatrics, is utterly disrupting. The Cold War in its new avatar is mincing, has been resumed with redoubled intensity, bringing in its train the threat of nuclear Armageddon and extinction.
The history of war has marked the history of human civilization, while internal conflicts within countries continue to be troublesome. The prophets of war have everything on their side, and humanity, with gasping breath, waits for the impending doom. The language of violence has entered into everybody’s speech, with the press and electronic media spreading lies, and the hopelessness born out of the smoke of the war. The current wave of scepticism and despair is definitely not a healthy sign of a progressive manki.
The Arab – Israel war is a matter of the terrible retribution of geography. Of course, most of the wars in the world are entangled more in geography. Israel wants its place under the Sun, as per the Balfour declaration, and Palestinians want their right to self-determination and a defined homeland for the Palestinian people. With the entry of Hamas and later Iran! Russia’s President Putin feels threatened when the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members, as per his version, tried to establish their base in Ukraine, an erstwhile part of Russia. Characteristically, these two wars have now become humanity’s concern, blown out of proportion, signalling a dreaded future.
Putin says having a military base within Ukraine is a violation of previous agreements/ treaties, wherein it is mentioned that the western powers are not to play with the spirit of that treaty..As a consequence, the war is interconnected with a plethora of sanctions spearheaded by the US. This has affected the world’s GDP output, with economic growth being relegated to the background.
These two wars are most crucial, and stopping the war would bring world peace. They are different than the Greco-Roman war, the Peloponnesian war, the Trojan war, the India-Pakistan war, the India-China war, he two world wars, and countless others. In the age of technology, they have acquired speed, ruled over time, with the latest developments in technology, giving more teeth to arms and ammunition. It is Cold War revisited.
Peace has lost its way in the debris. The maniac madness puts the world into a glorious period of uncertainty. The cost in terms of loss of lives, property, environment, and invaluable resources is colossal. The two continuing wars are due to the revenge of geography. Millions suffer unspeakable tragedy and agony, their dreams remain shattered, death and destruction become more familiar, the poor suffer the most, and the worst is that the innocents, who are not direct participants or in any way connected, become victims. The example of the dead child’s body floating near the seashore shocked the conscience of the world.
The armament race continues, the budgetary provision for the defence sector multiplies, at the cost of development, and military power blocks make it more clumsy. It is better to say less about the Israeli-Palestine madness and violence, which is now becoming out of control due to the entry of Iran and America. Schools are being rained with missiles, education is a liability, Ukrainians are leaving cities to search for a cover for their life, leaving aside their property. There is, the report says, an ethnic cleansing of the Gaza people, and the looming, evolving humanitarian crisis is becoming more complicated. Food and shelter are a chimera for them. There is no hope or any sign of hostilities to discontinue.
As per UN data, 90% of Ukrainians are facing poverty, and these war-torn geographies are experiencing political, social, and economic vulnerabilities. Global leadership, like the UN, has failed once again. The faith in the world body is receding. Trump’s half-hearted approach to peace, driven by his dream for a Nobel Prize, is a failed attempt.
Climate is the worst affected due to the continued war that spoils our ecological balance, and trade suffers due to uncertainty, as the Houthis invade the international sea trade route. Civilised society is awestruck by the concrete formula for peace, but the UN Security Council is a divided house. It is a relentless stream of disturbing news, more from social media with its choice for post-truth.
Though experts initially expected the Ukraine war would be one-sided, the support from NATO, headed by the US, has belied all expectations. So far, China has not joined the bandwagon. But with the possibility of a Chinese attempt to intervene/invade Taiwan, it would be a greater disaster, involving both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Even pundits have said that the peace process must build provisions for sustainable recoveries. The protracted wars can remain prolonged with massive casualties.
The war dynamics have entered a new phase with AI, getting a new lease of life. It is often felt that the war in Ukraine is a revolutionary shift in modern warfare, arms, and ammunition. What happened in Middle East and Ukraine, not accidental but long-term animosities, and the revenge of geography. The Israel-Hamas war failed to recognise the trauma of civilians and children, which is gruesome.
The war in Ukraine may not go nuclear, in view of the fact that it cannot be a zero-sum game, and there can be devastation to Europe and all others if it goes nuclear. Both wars are mindless wars. Still, there is a lurking fear of a nuclear war. The smoke of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is not over till now. The world could end in the next couple of hours, says one former commander of the United States, if it broke out.
No Time for peace, all for war. How can we come out of the Orwellian dilemma? The UN needs to act and should not stand as a mute witness, as hitherto. Time is short. Let the UN be decisive. Someone asked Albert Einstein what would happen if there were a Third World War. He replied, I cannot say what would happen, but if a fourth world war happens, it would be with bows and arrows. Since war starts in the minds of people, it must end in their minds
(The writer is a former General Manager of Bank of India. Views expressed are personal.)