The IMD predicts below-normal monsoon rainfall for Odisha in 2026 due to El Niño. Explore the potential impact on agriculture and the upcoming Kharif season
OdishaPlus Bureau
As Odisha anticipates a greater number of heat wave days than usual this summer, the forecast for the monsoon is also disheartening, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that it expects below-normal rainfall.
In its extended forecast for the monsoon season, the national meteorological agency indicated that many regions across the country, including Odisha, will likely experience reduced rainfall.
The southwest monsoon typically reaches the state around June 10, with the likelihood of below-normal rainfall during this period estimated at 35 to 45 percent. According to the national weather agency, the El Niño phenomenon, which generally diminishes rainfall across the nation, is anticipated to emerge during the monsoon season.
Ordinarily, the state receives 209.3 mm of rain in June, 341.4 mm in July, 363.8 mm in August, and 235.7 mm in September. Last year, Odisha recorded a total of 1,150.9 mm of rainfall, slightly above its average of 1,150 mm.
Since 2000, Odisha has not experienced a deficit in monsoon rainfall. A weaker monsoon could adversely affect agricultural production, as the kharif season commences at the end of May and extends through August.
Meteorologists have suggested that the state might still receive adequate monsoon rains this season. Each year, during the monsoon, at least 10 to 12 low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal, enhancing rainfall activity in Odisha. Depending on the number of weather systems that form this year, the state could also experience substantial rainfall, according to a weather expert.
Last year, the monsoon resulted in significant rainfall activity extending beyond September, attributed to the regular formation of weather systems. While six districts experienced excess rainfall (ranging from +20% to +59%), 21 districts received normal precipitation, and only three districts reported a deficit in rainfall (between -20% and -59%).
